作者 | 邢磊
大众汽车集团在中国市场的电动出行攻势正在紧锣密鼓的进行中。
“摸着石头过河”或许最适合描述这家德国汽车巨头在这场攻势中所采取的一系列措施。
大众汽车集团（中国）CEO冯思翰博士
这句著名的格言用来描述中国在上世纪70年代末开始的改革开放。改革开放几年后，大众汽车集团成为第一个进入中国市场的跨国汽车制造商。
桑塔纳和捷达很快便成为了中国老百姓出行的代名词。自那以后，集团凭借旗下大众、奥迪、斯柯达、保时捷等多个品牌，成为全球最大的汽车市场中销量最高的跨国汽车制造商，领先优势一直保持至今。
但那是传统内燃机汽车（ICE）时代，大众汽车和其他外国汽车制造商凭借卓越的设计、质量、动力总成技术、营销以及售后服务，在这一领域中将中国本土品牌搁置一地。中国本土品牌一直在奋力追赶，并试图通过新能源汽车（包括插电式混合动力汽车和纯电动汽车）来实现“换道超车”。
近40年后，中国品牌终于实现了“换道超车”，领跑新能源汽车市场。
随着中国汽车市场在在新能源汽车方面的转型，以比亚迪、五菱、蔚来、小鹏、理想等为首的中国新兴品牌在新能源汽车销量和市场份额方面已经大幅超越外资品牌，而大众汽车等跨国汽车制造商（除特斯拉以外）反而需要奋力追赶。
在河的一边是老旧的、无聊的传统内燃机汽车之战，大众汽车集团已占据主导地位。而另一边则是新的、令人兴奋的新能源汽车（智能电动汽车）之战，中国品牌已占据主导地位。对一些中国品牌来说，过河的长途跋涉已接近尾声，而像蔚来和小鹏这样的品牌，从一开始就已经在河的另一边开始了战斗，没有过河的包袱。
河对岸等待大众汽车集团的是一个宏伟的电动汽车目标：到2030年，集团计划投资730亿欧元用于电动化和数字化转型，并在全球累计生产2600万辆电动汽车，其中一半以上将来自中国；到2025年，集团计划每年在中国销售150万辆电动汽车：到2030年，新能源汽车将占据大众汽车品牌在华销量的一半以上；到2035年，新能源汽车将占据集团在华销量的一半以上；到2040年，集团计划在全球主要市场的所有新售车辆将接近零排放。
大众汽车ID.4荣获“2021世界年度车”大奖， 并获Euro NCAP五星最高评级
换句话说，在新兴的智能电动汽车时代，大众汽车集团希望其在中国生产和销售的新能源汽车能代替上世纪90年代和2000年代的桑塔纳和捷达成为中国老百姓出行的新代名词。
这将从基于大众汽车集团为纯电动车专属打造的MEB平台所推出的ID.系列开始。到目前为止，ID.家族已推出四款本土生产的车型并交付给客户：基于全球车型ID.4 SUV的ID.4 X 和 ID.4 CROZZ；专供中国市场的7座SUV ID.6 X和ID.6 CROZZ；以及年底前上市的尺寸为高尔夫大小的ID.3两厢车。另外，与集团在传统内燃机汽车时代大规模部署的经销商网络不同，ID.系列采取独特的代理模式销售与服务客户。
这些都是大众汽车集团在过河时摸的一些石头，并试图在新能源汽车之战中后来居上，同时捍卫其在传统内燃机汽车领域中的领导地位。目前集团在华市场份额约为18%。
7月13日，大众汽车集团管理董事会主席赫伯特·迪斯博士（Dr. Herbert Diess）在集团2030年战略“NEW AUTO”发布后接受媒体采访时表示：“我们在新能源汽车市场领域将努力实现与内燃机汽车市场相似的市场份额。中国是我们的主要市场之一，我们将尽最大努力捍卫这一市场领先优势。”
然而，这场以ID.家族为首的攻势起步并不顺利。
摸着石头
7月20日，大众汽车宣布，2021年上半年全球共交付170,939辆纯电动车，是上年同期的两倍多（+165.2%）。出人意料的是，欧洲市场交付量达到了128,078辆，同比增长156.3%，占全球总量的四分之三。美国位居第二，交付了18,514辆，是上年同期的4倍多（+321.2%）。
而中国以18,285辆的交付排名第三，同比增长110%，占集团全球交付量的10.7%，略低于美国。交付量约占集团同期在华交付185万辆汽车的 1%，低于造车新势力蔚来、小鹏、理想以及哪吒汽车上半年的交付量；仅占同期中国新能源汽车121万辆销量的1.5%左右；包括插电混动汽车在内的新能源汽车销量为 36,600 台，约占集团在华销量的 2%，低于行业近10%的平均水平。
尽管二季度的纯电动汽车交付量相比一季度翻番，超过 12,000 台，但 ID. 4 X 和 ID. 4 CROZZ从3月底正式上市以来相对慢热，两款车型在4月和5月合计销售分别只有一千多台。尽管6月份的销量有所好转，交付量超过2900台，但3个多月仅交付约6000台ID.系列，还是低于了很多业内人士的预期。
为什么ID.4在中国的表现不如欧洲甚至美国，特别是考虑到其作为首个国产的全球ID.车型投入了很多准备？这是一个业内很多人都在思考的问题，我相信沃尔夫斯堡也在问北京。
绝对不是设计问题，也不是质量问题（我们当然希望这永远不会成为一个问题）。这是一个产品配置问题和营销问题，尤其考虑到大众汽车集团在中国市场面临与欧洲市场完全不同的竞争环境和消费群体，特别是对智能化要求更高的中国用户。
正式上市前，大众汽车集团将ID.4的营销瞄准了90后和Z世代的年轻首次购车用户，这些用户对最新的互联等智能技术配置要求异常苛刻。然而，尽管20万元左右的定价策略很具有竞争力，ID.4并未提供这些年轻消费者所期望的功能和用户体验，因此最初反应不温不火。ID.4 的目标群体应该是以换购或增购为主的家庭和相对较成熟的用户，对最前沿的配置和智能互联功能方面相对没那么敏感。
ID.4，一车多能的纯电SUV 满足驾驶乐趣
"中国（玩家）的速度要快得多。您可能还注意到，首批制造商已经在测试甚至配备具有 L2+ 的自动驾驶功能。这肯定会在不远的将来成为一种趋势，大众汽车集团肯定会在这方面提供这些功能，”他说。
在销售模式方面，冯思翰博士表示，在大众汽车庞大的传统经销商体系下ID.系列采取独家代理销售模式是一个“学习过程，”它涉及透明度并提供与潜在客户更好的接触和沟通点。
“经过近两年来与合资伙伴的紧张讨论，我们决定建立代理制营销模式，特别是我们的ID.或电动车车型，”他说。“对于我们在市场上看到的纯电动汽车品牌来说，这或多或少都是新常态。当然，这对我们来说并不容易，因为我们的经销商系统采取传统的特许经营制度。因此，对于所有参与者，包括我们的经销商来说，这也是一个学习的过程。这还需要不断调整，我们目前正在这样做。”
他强调，大众汽车集团在纯电动汽车方面无意回到典型的批发模式，坚持代理制营销模式的计划是坚定的，因为新能源汽车客户本身就期待这种模式。冯思翰博士透露，集团也在扩大其ID.用户触点的足迹，如在一线和二线城市的ID. Hub和Pop Up展示中心，同时保持健康和有利润空间的经销商体系。
大众汽车集团不得不面对中国智能电动汽车市场的另一个独特特征：即所谓的“哑铃效应”。目前，微型电动汽车的价格远远低于10万元人民币，占新能源汽车市场近40%的份额，销量同比增长超过500%。另一端高档电动汽车的售价在25万至50万元人民币之间，增长速度也异常迅猛。售价为10-25万元的电动车所占据的市场份额并不高，造成了中间小、两头大的“哑铃效应。“
冯思翰博士说：“这与传统内燃机汽车市场的销售分布完全相反：交易价格在8万至25万元人民币之间的车型占据大部分市场份额。所以我们必须掌握新常态。由于大众汽车品牌占据主流大众类品牌的顶端，不算豪华品牌也不算入门品牌，当前的新能源汽车销售分布并不能反映我们品牌的定位。”
那么问题在于，大众汽车集团能否克服新能源汽车市场的“哑铃效应”，利用现有和即将推出的ID.家族车型，达到可以与特斯拉和蔚来等相媲美的市场强大的地位？大众汽车集团能否学会调整其代理模式以充分发挥优势，并同时平衡其现有经销商的利益？
大众汽车专为中国打造的ID.6于2021年全球首发
过河
幸运的是，就销量而言，势头正在好转。
6月份ID.4的订单量超过了其交付量，有明显的增长趋势。而ID.6 X 在 6 月正式上市后的头两周内交付量超过 500 台。
迪斯博士在7月22日的大众汽车集团年度股东大会上表示：“大众汽车品牌ID.系列在华销量预计将比上月翻一番，从6月份的3000辆增加到7月份的6000辆左右。“ID.6 的初步销售数据非常可观。我们的目标是今年在华销售8-10万辆ID.家族的纯电动汽车。”
迪斯博士在活动上重申，到2030年，中国将在大众汽车整个战略中发挥至关重要的作用。
“过去几十年，我们一直是中国市场的领导者。今年上半年，我们保持了18%的市场份额以及较高的盈利能力。我们的目标是在电动车领域也达到同样的地位，”他说。
显然，这句话说起来容易做起来难。大众汽车在加码以ID.系列为首的电动出行攻势同时（冯思翰博士认为，在竞争激烈的情况下，需要6-8个月才能实现销售正常化），也在布局电动化转型战略的其他重要环节。
大众汽车集团与国轩高科战略合作，推动电池电芯工业化生产
集团已在合肥和长春分别为大众汽车品牌和奥迪品牌建立新的外方控股新能源整车合资企业：奥迪一汽新能源以及大众安徽。前者将于2024年开始生产PPE平台为基础的电动汽车，后者将被打造成未来SSP平台的本土生产基地，其中包含正在建设的新研发中心。集团还将借助更多本土人才技能和能力进一步扩大在中国的业务。集团已与合作伙伴国轩高科达成协议在本土投产电芯。如今，已经有约1000名软件工程师在中国为集团汽车软件公司CARIAD工作。通过CARIAD，该公司正在中国系统地培养其软件技能，以便提供适合中国客户需求的数字化和互联化解决方案。
这些环节的执行在大众汽车集团在华寻路智能电动车时代新“ID”的过程中至关重要。
（作者邢磊曾任《中国汽车要闻》主编，过去20年来一直报道中国汽车工业。他目前是一名独立行业分析师/顾问，居住在美国麻州。）
【附】本文英文版：
VW in search of new IDentit-E in China
German giant coming from behind in China’s e-mobility game, can it lead?
–by Lei Xing
For Volkswagen Group, the old Chinese adage “cross the river by feeling the stones” 摸着石头过河might best describe the German giant’s approach towards its e-mobility offensive in China.
Generally attributed to Deng Xiaoping, the adage is used as a metaphor to describe China’s approach towards the reform and opening up that kicked off at the end of the 1970s, just a few years before Volkswagen became the first major foreign automaker to enter the Chinese market.
Santanas and Jettas soon became ubiquitous and synonymous with mobility in China, and Volkswagen has been the leading foreign automaker in the world’s largest auto market ever since then with its namesake as well as Audi, Škoda & Porsche marques, among others.
But that was the internal combustion engine (ICE) era, when Volkswagen and other foreign automakers held the emerging Chinese brands at bay with superior design, quality, powertrain technologies, sales and marketing, distribution and aftersales service. Chinese brands, on the other hand, have been playing catch up the whole time and tried to “overtake the foreigners on a different path” 换道超车: new energy vehicles (NEVs), which includes both plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs).
It’s taken almost 40 years, but the Chinese brands seemed to have finally flipped the narrative.
As China embarks on an ambitious new path toward e-mobility, Chinese brands led by upstarts BYD, Wuling, NIO, Xpeng and others have “overtaken the foreigners” as far as NEV sales and market share are concerned, while foreign automakers like Volkswagen (with the exception of Tesla) are in an unfamiliar territory of trying to catch up from behind.
On one side of the river is the old, boring ICE game, which Volkswagen has dominated. On the other is the new, exciting NEV (aka smart EV) game which the Chinese have dominated. For some of these Chinese brands, the trek across the river is nearly complete. Others like NIO & Xpeng began their fortunes by starting off on the other side of the river.
As Volkswagen crosses the river, what awaits on the other side is an ambitious e-mobility goal: by 2030, it plans to invest €73 billion in electrification and digital technology and produce 26 million BEVs globally, more than half of which will come from China; by 2025, it plans to sell 1.5 million NEVs in China annually; by 2030, NEVs will account for more than half of the namesake brand sales in China, and by 2035, they will account for more than half of group sales in the country; and by 2040, the group plans to sell exclusively BEVs in all major markets in the world.
In other words, in the emerging e-mobility era, Volkswagen wants its NEVs produced & sold in China with the VW badge as ubiquitous, if not more than, the Santanas and Jettas of the 1990s and 2000s.
That starts with the ID. series based on Volkswagen’s MEB platform dedicated to BEVs. So far, four locally-produced ID. models have been launched and delivered to customers: the ID.4 X and ID4. CROZZ based on the global ID.4 SUV, and the larger China-exclusive ID.6 X and ID.6 CROZZ SUVs. The fifth model, the ID.3 compact hatch the size of a Golf, is launching later this year. An exclusive agency model, unlike the legacy dealer system it has deployed on a massive scale to sell its ICE vehicles, is in place to sell and distribute the ID. series and service their customers.
These are just some of the stones that Volkswagen has been feeling as it crosses the river, trying to catch up in the NEV game while defending its leadership position in the ICE game, one in which it currently holds a commanding 18% market share.
“We will fight to achieve a similar market share in EVs that we have in ICEs,” Volkswagen Group CEO Dr. Herbert Diess said in an interview on July 13 after the company announced its 2030 Strategy. “China is one of our home markets, and we will do the utmost to defend this position.”
The fight, however, has had a tough start.
Feeling the stones
On July 20, Volkswagen announced that it delivered 170,939 BEVs globally in the first half of 2021, more than twice as many as in the prior-year period (+165.2 percent). A surprise was the Group’s home market of Europe, where 128,078 BEVs were delivered, up 156.3 percent and accounting for three-quarters of the global total. The U.S. came in second, with 18,514 BEVs delivered, more than four times (+321.2 percent) the prior-year period. China was third with deliveries of 18,285 BEVs, up 110% year-on-year and accounting for 10.7 percent of the Group’s worldwide BEV deliveries, slightly behind the U.S.
To put the 18,285 BEV deliveries in China into different perspectives: they account for roughly 1 percent of the 1.85 million vehicles the group delivered during the same period; are lower than what Chinese smart EV startups NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto or NETA delivered year-to-date through to June; and account for just about 1.5 percent of the nearly 1.21 million NEVs sold overall in China during the period. Sales of NEVs including BEVs, on the other hand, were 36,600 units, accounting for about 2 percent of group sales, less than the industry average of close to 10 percent.
Granted that BEV deliveries in Q2 nearly doubled on a sequential basis over Q1 with more than 12,000 units delivered, the ID. series, in particular, stumbled out of the gate starting with the ID. 4 X & ID. 4 CROZZ models, each selling just a few hundred units in April and May, their initial full months of sales since market launch at the end of March. Though sales improved in June with more than 2,900 units delivered, the roughly 6,000 ID. series delivered in a little more than three full months on the market is certainly below expectation of many in the industry if not that of Volkswagen.
Why hasn’t the ID. 4 performed as well in China so far as it has in Europe or even the U.S., especially considering that so much preparation went into it as the first locally-produced ID. model spearheading Volkswagen’s e-mobility offensive in China? This is a question that many in the industry are pondering and I’m sure Wolfsburg is also asking Beijing.
It’s definitely not a design issue, nor is it a quality issue (we certainly hope this will never become an issue). It is, though, a product feature issue and a sales & marketing issue in a cutthroat competitive environment with demanding customers for smart EVs that Volkswagen does not yet face in Europe.
Pre-launch, Volkswagen marketed and targeted both ID. 4 versions at the young & the restless: post-90s and Gen-Z first-time buyers looking for the latest tech features, when in fact the models did not offer those features nor was user experience up to their expectation despite a competitive pricing strategy around the RMB200,000 point, hence the tepid initial response. What the ID. 4 should have targeted are families and mature buyers that are looking to trade-in their vehicles or make additional purchases, and may not be as sensitive when it comes to tech features.
Dr. Stephan Wöllenstein, CEO of Volkswagen Group China, hinted in an interview on July 15 that Volkswagen is somewhat behind in terms of offering the latest smart, intelligent connected EVs with partly or fully autonomous driving capabilities.
“China is at a much higher speed. You probably have also noticed that the first manufacturers are already testing the waters with L2+ automated driving functions,” he said. “This will certainly also become a trend in the not too far future and Volkswagen Group will certainly offer this in this respect.”
The exclusive agency sales model for the ID. series, which is about transparency and offering better touchpoints and communications with potential customers, has been a “learning process,” according to Dr. Wöllenstein.
“We have after intense discussion over the years with our joint venture partners, really decided on the agency model to come into place in particular with our ID. or electric models,” he said. “This is the new normal anyway for more or less all the pure NEV brands that we see in the market. It is of course not easy for us because of our legacy with our dealer system which is our traditional franchise system. So it is also a learning process for all parties involved, including our dealers. This also needs constant adjustment, which we are currently doing.”
Though he stressed that there is no intention to going back to the typical wholesale model and the plan to stick to the agency model is firm, as this is how customers for NEVs are expected to be treated. Volkswagen is also expanding its footprint of ID. stores such as ID. Hubs and pop-up stores in tier-one and tier-TWO cities, while maintaining healthy and profitable operation of 2,000 dealerships, according to Dr. Wöllenstein.
Another unique feature of the Chinese NEV market that Volkswagen has to confront is the so-called “dumbbell effect” – where currently the key drivers are micro EVs priced far below RMB100,000 that account for nearly 40 percent of the market and growing at more than 500 percent, and premium EVs priced between RMB250,000 to RMB500,000.
“This is completely opposite to the distribution of sales in the ICE market where the majority of cars sold are transacted between RMB80,000 and RMB250,000, a pretty unnatural pattern which we all have to master,” said Dr. Wöllenstein. “As Volkswagen is the top of volume brand and not so much premium or entry brand per se, this is a pattern which of course is not reflecting the positioning of our brand.”
So the question is, can Volkswagen overcome the “dumbbell effect” with its suite of existing and upcoming ID. models, and can it achieve the same strong position in the NEV game as electric-only brands like Tesla and NIO who have set the benchmark, and learn to adapt and tweak its agency model to full advantage while balancing the interests of its existing dealers?
Crossing the river
Luckily, things are looking up as far as volumes are concerned.
Order in-takes in June for the ID. 4 exceeded its delivery figure, pointing to a growth trend. Deliveries of the ID. 6 X exceeded 500 units in its first two weeks of sale in June.
“Sales of the ID. are expected to double compared with the previous month – from 3,000 in June to about 6,000 in July,” said Dr. Diess at Volkswagen Group’s Annual General Meeting on July 22. “And initial sales figures for the ID.6 are highly promising. We aim to sell a total of 80,000 to 100,000 electric cars from the ID. family in China by the end of the year.”
Dr. Diess reiterated at the event that China will play a crucial role in the success of Volkswagen’s entire strategy through 2030.
“We’ve been the unrivaled market leader in China in the past decades. We maintained our position in the first half of this year with a market share of 18 percent. And profitability is high. Our goal is to achieve the same position in the electric world, too,” he said.
Obviously, Dr. Diess & co. at Volkswagen knows this is easier said than done. As the company navigates this early phase of the e-mobility offensive led by the ID. portfolio, which Dr. Wöllenstein says needs about “6-8 months to normalize sales” amid an industry-wide offensive and fierce competition across all sectors, it’s also putting the pieces of the puzzle together to make the river crossing as smooth as it can be.
The group has secured majority stakes in electric mobility companies for Audi and the namesake Volkswagen brands for the first time. It is strengthening its key electric joint venture Volkswagen Anhui with a new factory and a new R&D Center, to make it the local hub for the future unified SSP mechatronics platform. Audi will produce electric vehicles based on the PPE platform for the Chinese market in Changchun under a majority-owned joint venture with FAW starting in 2024. It has invested in local battery production with partner Gotion. And with CARIAD, it is systematically building its software skills in China so that it can offer digital solutions tailored to the needs of Chinese customers.
These are crucial and execution will be paramount as Volkswagen searches for its new identity in China in the e-mobility age, one that will emerge and be clearer as it crosses the river by feeling the stones.
Lei Xing is former Chief Editor of China Auto Review, having covered the Chinese auto industry for the past 20 years. He is currently an independent analyst/consultant and resides in Massachusetts in the U.S.
